Qualification · Qualification 4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
154.85 – 145.01
53%47%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
124 – 122
Prediction correct · off by 26.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.9 ±12.4
Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 98.52Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 53Event APEX 39.76Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 16.57Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.7 ±11.7
Season APEX 201Event APEX 60.36Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 49.59Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 35.06Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 548, 66, 4395
62
/ 100 compatProjected
154.9 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 548, 66, 4395
Auto
31.7 21%
Teleop
91.9 60%
Endgame
30.0 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1076, 9226, 9727
59
/ 100 compatProjected
145 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 1076, 9226, 9727
Auto
27.1 19%
Teleop
73.4 52%
Endgame
39.8 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.54
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score154.9pts
Blue projected score145pts
Red win probability53%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 9.8
- Score range
- 117–183
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
335.9Season APEX349.7
31.7Auto27.1
91.9Teleop73.4
30Endgame39.8
42Consistency22
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 10 |
| teleop | 98 | 83 |
| endgame | 5 | 29 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 124 | 122 |
Result
Final score
124 – 122
Prediction correct · off by 26.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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