FIM District Saline Event presented by Oracle

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.73 – 187.04

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500 ±11.2

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 43.91Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 143.45Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

815Advanced Power

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 25.37Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.6 ±11.6

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 141.57Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 1.42Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7178Yeti

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 44.05Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2834, 67, 815

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2834, 67, 815

Auto

49.1 24%

Teleop

118.1 57%

Endgame

38.7 19%

Strengths

· 67 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3322, 3773, 7178

/ 100 compat

Projected

187 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3322, 3773, 7178

Auto

25.8 14%

Teleop

109.2 58%

Endgame

53.7 28%

Strengths

· 3322 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score212.7pts

Blue projected score187pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.7
Score range: 162–238
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 138.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500Season APEX256.6

49.1Auto25.8

118.1Teleop109.2

38.7Endgame53.7

74Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	43
teleop	131	76
endgame	70	75
foul	35	10
total	298	204

Result

Final score

298 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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