FIM District Saline Event presented by Oracle

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.09 – 99.57

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.1 ±12.2

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 50.45Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4994Kingston Robo-Cards

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 14Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

308Monsters

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 49.64Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.5 ±12.7

9242Hamady Hawks

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 35.22Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9727Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 8.57Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7692Beach Bums 7692

Season APEX 83.5Event APEX 55.78Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5567, 4994, 308

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5567, 4994, 308

Auto

31.5 27%

Teleop

72.6 61%

Endgame

14.6 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9242, 9727, 7692

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9242, 9727, 7692

Auto

19.9 22%

Teleop

46.7 51%

Endgame

25.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.1pts

Blue projected score99.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.5
Score range: 74–140
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 144.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.1Season APEX224.5

31.5Auto19.9

72.6Teleop46.7

14.6Endgame25.7

174Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	35
teleop	82	64
endgame	26	22
foul	5	0
total	138	121

Result

Final score

138 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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