Qualification · Qualification 17
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
83.45 – 77.39
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
69 – 44
Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.1 ±13.3
Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 22.12Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 51.95Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 9.38Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.5 ±13.3
Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 22.76Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 62.12Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 34.4Event APEX -7.49Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6532, 7178, 4395
50
/ 100 compatProjected
83.5 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 6532, 7178, 4395
Auto
25.6 30%
Teleop
34.4 40%
Endgame
25.7 30%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4994, 5090, 10656
46
/ 100 compatProjected
77.4 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 4994, 5090, 10656
Auto
19.9 25%
Teleop
27.6 35%
Endgame
31.5 40%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.44
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score83.5pts
Blue projected score77.4pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 43%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 6.1
- Score range
- 50–110
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
156.1Season APEX133.5
25.6Auto19.9
34.4Teleop27.6
25.7Endgame31.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 24 |
| teleop | 12 | 14 |
| endgame | 36 | 6 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 69 | 44 |
Result
Final score
69 – 44
Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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