FIM District Saline Event presented by Oracle

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.59 – 57.25

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 62.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.7 ±12.8

7147Rising Falcons

Season APEX 101Event APEX 48.15Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 37.32Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

66Grizzly Robotics

Season APEX 53Event APEX 39.12Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.1 ±11.7

10590Compass Team

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX -8.61Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

308Monsters

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 26.74Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 39.12Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7147, 2834, 66

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7147, 2834, 66

Auto

11.5 9%

Teleop

92.8 75%

Endgame

20.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10590, 308, 548

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10590, 308, 548

Auto

5.6 10%

Teleop

35.8 63%

Endgame

15.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124.6pts

Blue projected score57.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.3
Score range: 32–150
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 140.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.7Season APEX329.1

11.5Auto5.6

92.8Teleop35.8

20Endgame15.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	21
teleop	28	100
endgame	38	14
foul	0	5
total	82	140

Result

Final score

82 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 62.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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