Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.69 – 207.16

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

194 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.2 ±9.3

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 76.28Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 32.06Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 57.35Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467.1 ±9.8

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 63.86Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 59.55Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 83.75Rank 14Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7197, 4327, 3656

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.7 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7197, 4327, 3656

Auto

30.7 16%

Teleop

73.3 38%

Endgame

89.5 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 71%

Blue · 4926, 4381, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.2 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4926, 4381, 1189

Auto

42.8 18%

Teleop

101.8 42%

Endgame

98.7 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 71%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.64 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score165.7pts

Blue projected score207.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 71%, blue 70%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.5
Score range: 132–241
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 190.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506.2Season APEX467.1

30.7Auto42.8

73.3Teleop101.8

89.5Endgame98.7

76Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	83
teleop	46	83
endgame	92	82
foul	15	0
total	194	248

Result

Final score

194 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Match videos

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