Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.39 – 135.47

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 219

Prediction missed · off by 50.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.3 ±9.8

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 20.83Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 54.15Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 72.41Rank 16Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.9 ±10.5

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 2.5Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 54.94Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 78.03Rank 14Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8424, 1076, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8424, 1076, 247

Auto

8.6 5%

Teleop

65.0 34%

Endgame

116.4 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 78%

Blue · 3655, 4381, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.5 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3655, 4381, 1189

Auto

30.0 16%

Teleop

56.0 30%

Endgame

97.9 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 78%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score147.4pts

Blue projected score135.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 78%, blue 73%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.9
Score range: 101–181
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 383 vs event baseline 187.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.3Season APEX400.9

8.6Auto30

65Teleop56

116.4Endgame97.9

28Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	49
teleop	84	96
endgame	47	74
foul	0	0
total	164	219

Result

Final score

164 – 219

Prediction missed · off by 50.1 pts

Match videos

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