Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.13 – 141.49

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

177 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 503.7 ±10.4

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 16.79Rank 24Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 44.89Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 59.45Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272 ±11.7

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 67.83Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 32.03Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 41.63Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 226, 2834, 2611

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.1 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 226, 2834, 2611

Auto

10.3 7%

Teleop

71.4 47%

Endgame

70.4 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 65%

Blue · 9210, 9255, 5704

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.5 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9210, 9255, 5704

Auto

27.0 15%

Teleop

70.8 38%

Endgame

86.9 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 65%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.73 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score121.1pts

Blue projected score141.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 65%, blue 73%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.4
Score range: 87–175
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 188.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

503.7Season APEX272

10.3Auto27

71.4Teleop70.8

70.4Endgame86.9

48Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	20
teleop	67	56
endgame	93	75
foul	5	0
total	177	151

Result

Final score

177 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 32.7 pts

Match videos

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