Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
203.19 – 178.71
58%42%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
354 – 288
Prediction correct · off by 130.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 577.1 ±9.3
Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 35.53Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 63.53Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 104.13Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 59.43Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 50.01Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 69.27Rank 14Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3357, 1506, 10349
57
/ 100 compatProjected
203.2 pts
~2.0 RP (offseason)
Teams: 3357, 1506, 10349
Auto
25.3 10%
Teleop
99.4 40%
Endgame
121.8 49%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 18%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 60%
Blue · 4926, 4381, 1189
55
/ 100 compatProjected
178.7 pts
~1.7 RP (offseason)
Teams: 4926, 4381, 1189
Auto
41.2 18%
Teleop
88.6 38%
Endgame
100.9 44%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 18%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 60%
Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.73
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setOffseason
Red projected score203.2pts
Blue projected score178.7pts
Red win probability58%
Event bonus sample130alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 18%, blue 15%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 60%, blue 70%
- Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 24.5
- Score range
- 146–236
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
577.1Season APEX467.1
25.3Auto41.2
99.4Teleop88.6
121.8Endgame100.9
20Consistency24
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 32 | 43 |
| teleop | 171 | 135 |
| endgame | 151 | 95 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 354 | 288 |
Result
Final score
354 – 288
Prediction correct · off by 130.1 pts
Match videos
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