Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

323.93 – 164.81

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

347 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 709.6 ±8.7

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 16.94Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 162.36Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 144.63Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.3 ±9.8

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 24.53Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 61.87Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 78.41Rank 16Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3175, 201, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.9 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3175, 201, 51

Auto

43.8 12%

Teleop

188.9 52%

Endgame

133.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 62%

Blue · 8424, 1076, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.8 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8424, 1076, 247

Auto

10.8 5%

Teleop

77.5 37%

Endgame

123.9 58%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 62%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.63 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score323.9pts

Blue projected score164.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 62%, blue 78%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 159.1
Score range: 132–357
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 184.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

709.6Season APEX450.3

43.8Auto10.8

188.9Teleop77.5

133.8Endgame123.9

20Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	2
teleop	151	29
endgame	107	91
foul	45	0
total	347	122

Result

Final score

347 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Match videos

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