Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.9 – 160.7

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 577.1 ±9.3

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 58.17Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 87.39Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 125.34Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.9 ±10.5

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 8.71Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 65.15Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 86.84Rank 14Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3357, 1506, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.9 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3357, 1506, 10349

Auto

35.9 12%

Teleop

134.6 46%

Endgame

120.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 60%

Blue · 3655, 4926, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3655, 4926, 1189

Auto

34.6 17%

Teleop

77.0 39%

Endgame

88.0 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 60%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score270.9pts

Blue projected score160.7pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 60%, blue 69%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.2
Score range: 126–306
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 505 vs event baseline 195.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

577.1Season APEX412.9

35.9Auto34.6

134.6Teleop77

120.3Endgame88

0Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	58
teleop	183	68
endgame	63	69
foul	0	15
total	295	210

Result

Final score

295 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Match videos

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