Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.48 – 95.75

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 497.7 ±11.2

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 20.29Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX -4.67Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 84.86Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.7 ±10.4

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 34.57Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 20.29Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 40.89Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5704, 3357, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.5 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5704, 3357, 5460

Auto

19.7 17%

Teleop

46.8 41%

Endgame

46.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 66%

Blue · 2834, 4422, 8424

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.8 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2834, 4422, 8424

Auto

10.2 10%

Teleop

48.5 48%

Endgame

43.1 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 66%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score100.5pts

Blue projected score95.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 66%, blue 76%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.7
Score range: 66–130
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 166.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

497.7Season APEX412.7

19.7Auto10.2

46.8Teleop48.5

46.3Endgame43.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	6
teleop	86	40
endgame	104	71
foul	0	0
total	235	67

Result

Final score

235 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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