Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.48 – 165.8

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.2 ±9.8

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 33.71Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 29.34Rank 24Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 45.43Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 572.1 ±9.9

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 55.6Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 79.63Rank 14Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 30.57Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9210, 226, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9210, 226, 33

Auto

10.0 9%

Teleop

58.9 51%

Endgame

47.4 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 67%

Blue · 3656, 1189, 1596

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.8 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3656, 1189, 1596

Auto

28.5 15%

Teleop

76.2 40%

Endgame

85.8 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 67%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.57 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score108.5pts

Blue projected score165.8pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 67%, blue 74%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.3
Score range: 75–199
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 181.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.2Season APEX572.1

10Auto28.5

58.9Teleop76.2

47.4Endgame85.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	10
teleop	30	12
endgame	102	76
foul	15	15
total	97	63

Result

Final score

97 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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