Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.22 – 220.71

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.8 ±10.4

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 36.99Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 29.6Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 7.63Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.5 ±9.3

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 77.04Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 37.2Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 106.47Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2834, 9255, 5577

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.2 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2834, 9255, 5577

Auto

13.5 12%

Teleop

30.7 27%

Endgame

69.2 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 77%

Blue · 9210, 4327, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.7 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9210, 4327, 10349

Auto

34.6 13%

Teleop

96.1 37%

Endgame

131.4 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 77%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score74.2pts

Blue projected score220.7pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 77%, blue 68%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.5
Score range: 41–254
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 183.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.8Season APEX476.5

13.5Auto34.6

30.7Teleop96.1

69.2Endgame131.4

66Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	36
teleop	55	105
endgame	125	108
foul	0	0
total	144	199

Result

Final score

144 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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