Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

190.41 – 245.46

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 100 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.6 ±10.4

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 56.24Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 68.62Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 65.55Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.7 ±10.5

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 30.94Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 204.84Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 9.68Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3357, 4926, 2611

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3357, 4926, 2611

Auto

30.5 15%

Teleop

103.0 49%

Endgame

75.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 61%

Blue · 9255, 5460, 3655

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.5 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9255, 5460, 3655

Auto

72.4 26%

Teleop

94.7 34%

Endgame

114.8 41%

Strengths

· 5460 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 61%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.43 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score190.4pts

Blue projected score245.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 61%, blue 72%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.1
Score range: 153–282
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 206.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.6Season APEX499.7

30.5Auto72.4

103Teleop94.7

75.8Endgame114.8

29Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	84
teleop	27	122
endgame	14	141
foul	0	0
total	42	297

Result

Final score

42 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 100 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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