Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

241.65 – 125.82

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.3 ±10.7

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 143.07Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 55.73Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 42.85Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326 ±11.7

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 74.03Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 29.09Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6078RoboRams

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 22.7Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 51, 3656, 5704

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.7 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 51, 3656, 5704

Auto

40.8 15%

Teleop

133.8 48%

Endgame

104.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 69%

Blue · 7197, 3357, 6078

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.8 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7197, 3357, 6078

Auto

17.1 10%

Teleop

64.5 38%

Endgame

89.7 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 69%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.62 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score241.7pts

Blue projected score125.8pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 69%, blue 71%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.8
Score range: 93–275
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 458 vs event baseline 183.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.3Season APEX326

40.8Auto17.1

133.8Teleop64.5

104.1Endgame89.7

31Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	8
teleop	142	102
endgame	98	119
foul	0	15
total	264	194

Result

Final score

264 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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