Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.55 – 269.3

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

268 – 252

Prediction missed · off by 77.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.6 ±10.5

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 29.3Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 50.59Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 50.66Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 533.1 ±9.8

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 21.04Rank 24Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 82.84Rank 16Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 165.42Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6120, 2611, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.6 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6120, 2611, 1506

Auto

3.1 2%

Teleop

68.9 46%

Endgame

77.3 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 52%

Blue · 226, 247, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.3 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 226, 247, 201

Auto

29.4 9%

Teleop

147.5 47%

Endgame

140.0 44%

Strengths

· 201 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 52%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score130.6pts

Blue projected score269.3pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 52%, blue 72%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.7
Score range: 99–301
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 179.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.6Season APEX533.1

3.1Auto29.4

68.9Teleop147.5

77.3Endgame140

23Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	6
teleop	201	121
endgame	54	160
foul	5	15
total	268	252

Result

Final score

268 – 252

Prediction missed · off by 77.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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