Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.13 – 125.65

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 50.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.3 ±10.4

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 45.06Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 20.31Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 53.76Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.1 ±10.5

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 50.05Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 65.73Rank 14Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 9.87Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4381, 8424, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.1 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4381, 8424, 4926

Auto

21.1 13%

Teleop

64.8 41%

Endgame

73.1 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 70%

Blue · 4422, 1189, 3655

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4422, 1189, 3655

Auto

19.0 11%

Teleop

56.3 32%

Endgame

102.0 58%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 70%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.82 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score119.1pts

Blue projected score125.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 70%, blue 76%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.5
Score range: 87–158
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 179.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.3Season APEX427.1

21.1Auto19

64.8Teleop56.3

73.1Endgame102

12Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	50
teleop	88	57
endgame	130	91
foul	0	0
total	197	148

Result

Final score

197 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 50.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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