Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.34 – 144.08

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.4 ±11

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 46.74Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX -2.46Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 75.06Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.8 ±12.2

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 85.2Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6078RoboRams

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 27.94Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 30.94Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2611, 1596, 7197

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.3 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2611, 1596, 7197

Auto

15.8 12%

Teleop

66.1 50%

Endgame

50.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 67%

Blue · 9210, 6078, 6120

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9210, 6078, 6120

Auto

9.7 5%

Teleop

71.3 37%

Endgame

111.1 58%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 67%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score119.3pts

Blue projected score144.1pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 67%, blue 65%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.7
Score range: 87–176
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 179.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.4Season APEX299.8

15.8Auto9.7

66.1Teleop71.3

50.4Endgame111.1

39Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	14
teleop	112	62
endgame	101	54
foul	0	0
total	183	130

Result

Final score

183 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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