Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.21 – 154.14

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

185 – 292

Prediction missed · off by 77.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 588.8 ±9.3

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 51.31Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 50.11Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 65.79Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.5 ±9.8

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 33.22Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 99.78Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 21.14Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4422, 1506, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.2 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4422, 1506, 1076

Auto

29.9 14%

Teleop

87.8 42%

Endgame

89.4 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 70%

Blue · 4381, 10349, 3357

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.1 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4381, 10349, 3357

Auto

31.8 15%

Teleop

56.6 28%

Endgame

117.3 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 70%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score167.2pts

Blue projected score154.1pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 70%, blue 68%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.1
Score range: 122–199
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 177.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

588.8Season APEX416.5

29.9Auto31.8

87.8Teleop56.6

89.4Endgame117.3

25Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	63
teleop	64	139
endgame	117	140
foul	15	0
total	185	292

Result

Final score

185 – 292

Prediction missed · off by 77.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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