Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.09 – 88.58

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

362 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 152.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.3 ±9.8

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 134.74Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 73.35Rank 16Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 23Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.6 ±11.2

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 5.58Rank 24Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 29.5Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 53.5Rank 14Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 51, 247, 9255

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.1 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 51, 247, 9255

Auto

35.1 12%

Teleop

120.6 43%

Endgame

126.9 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 73%

Blue · 226, 5704, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 226, 5704, 1189

Auto

8.8 7%

Teleop

31.2 26%

Endgame

78.8 66%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 73%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.74 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score231.1pts

Blue projected score88.6pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 73%, blue 71%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 142.5
Score range: 58–262
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 625 vs event baseline 174.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.3Season APEX438.6

35.1Auto8.8

120.6Teleop31.2

126.9Endgame78.8

31Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	52
teleop	202	152
endgame	172	104
foul	0	5
total	362	263

Result

Final score

362 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 152.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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