Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

274.71 – 186.57

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 4.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 670.3 ±9.8

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 76.68Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 12.95Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 185.08Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.1 ±10.5

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 39.87Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 42.44Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 104.26Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7197, 5577, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.7 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7197, 5577, 5460

Auto

73.6 24%

Teleop

137.6 44%

Endgame

98.5 32%

Strengths

· 5460 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 72%

Blue · 2834, 6120, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2834, 6120, 10349

Auto

22.6 10%

Teleop

94.5 41%

Endgame

115.2 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 72%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.5 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score274.7pts

Blue projected score186.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 72%, blue 61%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.1
Score range: 156–306
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 170.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

670.3Season APEX451.1

73.6Auto22.6

137.6Teleop94.5

98.5Endgame115.2

52Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	1
teleop	118	78
endgame	91	148
foul	30	0
total	275	177

Result

Final score

275 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 4.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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