Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.77 – 86.86

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

192 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 141.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.1 ±11

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 47.87Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 84.88Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX -3.98Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470 ±11.2

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 48.19Rank 16Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 27.77Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6078RoboRams

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 10.9Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4422, 9210, 1596

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.8 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4422, 9210, 1596

Auto

25.9 16%

Teleop

57.8 37%

Endgame

74.1 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 76%

Blue · 247, 1506, 6078

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.9 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 247, 1506, 6078

Auto

-3.8 0%

Teleop

25.0 20%

Endgame

101.5 83%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 76%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score128.8pts

Blue projected score86.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 76%, blue 70%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.9
Score range: 57–159
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 168.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.1Season APEX470

25.9Auto-3.8

57.8Teleop25

74.1Endgame101.5

44Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	28
teleop	102	192
endgame	105	137
foul	0	0
total	192	307

Result

Final score

192 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 141.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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