Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.57 – 177.53

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 354

Prediction missed · off by 181.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.3 ±11.2

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 32.91Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6078RoboRams

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 41.32Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 219.34Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 641.9 ±9.3

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 101.17Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 8.72Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 67.64Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8424, 6078, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.6 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8424, 6078, 5460

Auto

83.3 25%

Teleop

123.6 36%

Endgame

132.6 39%

Strengths

· 5460 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 73%

Blue · 51, 1506, 9210

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.5 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 51, 1506, 9210

Auto

23.8 12%

Teleop

88.4 44%

Endgame

90.0 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 73%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.59 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score293.6pts

Blue projected score177.5pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 73%, blue 60%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116
Score range: 148–324
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 461 vs event baseline 165.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.3Season APEX641.9

83.3Auto23.8

123.6Teleop88.4

132.6Endgame90

136Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	48
teleop	39	200
endgame	118	156
foul	0	0
total	107	354

Result

Final score

107 – 354

Prediction missed · off by 181.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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