Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.15 – 28.07

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404 ±10.4

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 20.19Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 52.63Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 43.33Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.5 ±11

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 0.4Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 4.79Rank 24Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 22.88Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5577, 4381, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.2 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5577, 4381, 4422

Auto

23.0 15%

Teleop

72.7 46%

Endgame

61.7 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 81%

Blue · 1596, 226, 9255

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1596, 226, 9255

Auto

3.6 8%

Teleop

-6.4 0%

Endgame

49.9 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 81%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.49 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score116.2pts

Blue projected score28.1pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 81%, blue 75%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.1
Score range: -2–146
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 167.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404Season APEX327.5

23Auto3.6

72.7Teleop-6.4

61.7Endgame49.9

61Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	8
teleop	37	23
endgame	93	77
foul	0	0
total	121	58

Result

Final score

121 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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