Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.43 – 152.09

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

409 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 55.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 692.4 ±9.3

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 75.28Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 34.93Rank 16Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 203.22Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.6 ±10.5

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 7.69Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 92.62Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 51.78Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10349, 247, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.4 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10349, 247, 5460

Auto

81.1 21%

Teleop

154.9 40%

Endgame

155.4 40%

Strengths

· 5460 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 70%

Blue · 3357, 33, 6120

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.1 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3357, 33, 6120

Auto

22.0 11%

Teleop

73.8 37%

Endgame

104.8 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 70%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.9 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score313.4pts

Blue projected score152.1pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 70%, blue 58%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.3
Score range: 123–342
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 576 vs event baseline 163.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

692.4Season APEX445.6

81.1Auto22

154.9Teleop73.8

155.4Endgame104.8

101Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	108	33
teleop	141	77
endgame	195	107
foul	15	0
total	409	167

Result

Final score

409 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 55.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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