Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.47 – 216.52

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 72.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489 ±9.3

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 33.2Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 88.03Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 57.24Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.7 ±10.5

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 46.06Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 146.22Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 24.24Rank 24Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4327, 1506, 4381

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4327, 1506, 4381

Auto

29.2 15%

Teleop

73.8 39%

Endgame

88.3 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 64%

Blue · 6120, 51, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.5 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6120, 51, 226

Auto

26.0 11%

Teleop

105.8 46%

Endgame

97.5 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 64%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.55 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score178.5pts

Blue projected score216.5pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 64%, blue 59%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.1
Score range: 141–254
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 206.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489Season APEX468.7

29.2Auto26

73.8Teleop105.8

88.3Endgame97.5

79Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	11
teleop	14	63
endgame	95	90
foul	15	0
total	86	164

Result

Final score

86 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 72.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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