Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.04 – 139.17

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.3 ±11.7

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 27.82Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 40.92Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX -0.7Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.8 ±9.3

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 67.04Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 43.13Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 29Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3655, 5704, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

68 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3655, 5704, 1506

Auto

4.7 5%

Teleop

21.5 25%

Endgame

61.5 70%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 65%

Blue · 1076, 2611, 4327

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.2 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1076, 2611, 4327

Auto

26.8 16%

Teleop

69.8 42%

Endgame

68.0 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 65%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.43 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score68pts

Blue projected score139.2pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 65%, blue 68%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.1
Score range: 38–169
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 164.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.3Season APEX510.8

4.7Auto26.8

21.5Teleop69.8

61.5Endgame68

29Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	4
teleop	35	106
endgame	51	120
foul	0	0
total	86	180

Result

Final score

86 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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