Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.28 – 234.27

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.6 ±11.2

6078RoboRams

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 35.48Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 8.14Rank 24Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 20.66Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.6 ±10.4

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 67.03Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 62Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 105.24Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6078, 226, 3175

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6078, 226, 3175

Auto

5.2 9%

Teleop

6.0 10%

Endgame

48.0 81%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 69%

Blue · 4381, 2834, 7197

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.3 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4381, 2834, 7197

Auto

49.5 18%

Teleop

140.5 51%

Endgame

85.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 69%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score64.3pts

Blue projected score234.3pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 69%, blue 71%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -170
Score range: 34–264
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 165.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.6Season APEX405.6

5.2Auto49.5

6Teleop140.5

48Endgame85.7

107Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	31
teleop	45	92
endgame	78	94
foul	0	15
total	77	182

Result

Final score

77 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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