Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.74 – 94.7

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.7 ±9.9

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 90.38Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 13.52Rank 26Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 44.84Rank 14Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.9 ±11

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 22.9Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 2.7Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 69.1Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 51, 6548, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.7 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 51, 6548, 1189

Auto

30.7 16%

Teleop

70.1 37%

Endgame

88.6 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 72%

Blue · 5577, 1596, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.7 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5577, 1596, 4926

Auto

20.9 17%

Teleop

58.8 47%

Endgame

46.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 72%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score148.7pts

Blue projected score94.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 72%, blue 74%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54
Score range: 65–179
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 165.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.7Season APEX365.9

30.7Auto20.9

70.1Teleop58.8

88.6Endgame46

60Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	25
teleop	96	29
endgame	120	39
foul	0	15
total	200	108

Result

Final score

200 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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