Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.39 – 228.79

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 503.5 ±9.8

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 21.5Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 45.4Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 62.49Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.5 ±9.8

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 153.59Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 29.3Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 45.9Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8424, 3656, 9210

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8424, 3656, 9210

Auto

15.0 9%

Teleop

70.5 44%

Endgame

74.9 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 72%

Blue · 201, 9255, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.8 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 201, 9255, 4422

Auto

16.7 6%

Teleop

131.1 44%

Endgame

147.2 50%

Strengths

· 201 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 72%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.39 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score129.4pts

Blue projected score228.8pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 72%, blue 77%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.4
Score range: 99–259
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 164.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

503.5Season APEX472.5

15Auto16.7

70.5Teleop131.1

74.9Endgame147.2

80Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	56
teleop	78	117
endgame	122	93
foul	0	0
total	166	216

Result

Final score

166 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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