Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.82 – 245.76

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

186 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.9 ±10.4

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 28.71Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 50.43Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 25.68Rank 16Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 625.5 ±9.3

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 102.36Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 76.83Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 66.57Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2611, 4381, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.8 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2611, 4381, 247

Auto

5.1 4%

Teleop

61.8 52%

Endgame

52.4 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 70%

Blue · 33, 1076, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.8 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 33, 1076, 2834

Auto

35.9 12%

Teleop

152.7 51%

Endgame

112.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 70%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score104.8pts

Blue projected score245.8pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 70%, blue 71%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140.9
Score range: 76–275
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 163.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.9Season APEX625.5

5.1Auto35.9

61.8Teleop152.7

52.4Endgame112

63Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	59
teleop	105	87
endgame	113	106
foul	0	0
total	186	202

Result

Final score

186 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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