Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.08 – 173.06

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 83.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.2 ±11.7

6078RoboRams

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 38.72Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 19.28Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 82.08Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506 ±9.9

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 26.04Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 99.27Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 47.75Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6078, 3655, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.1 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6078, 3655, 51

Auto

18.2 10%

Teleop

57.4 31%

Endgame

111.9 60%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 73%

Blue · 1596, 10349, 3175

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1596, 10349, 3175

Auto

26.2 15%

Teleop

85.5 47%

Endgame

68.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 73%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.7 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score140.1pts

Blue projected score173.1pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 73%, blue 66%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33
Score range: 110–203
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 165.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.2Season APEX506

18.2Auto26.2

57.4Teleop85.5

111.9Endgame68.4

53Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	7
teleop	104	15
endgame	92	83
foul	0	0
total	189	55

Result

Final score

189 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 83.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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