Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.95 – 190.61

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

92 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 91.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.5 ±11.7

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 9.23Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 21.28Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 26.44Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.1 ±10.5

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 20.82Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 37Rank 26Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 132.79Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9255, 8424, 5704

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9255, 8424, 5704

Auto

14.4 18%

Teleop

11.3 14%

Endgame

55.6 68%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 75%

Blue · 1506, 6548, 7197

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.6 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1506, 6548, 7197

Auto

17.9 8%

Teleop

97.4 42%

Endgame

117.6 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 75%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.28 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score57pts

Blue projected score190.6pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 75%, blue 67%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133.7
Score range: 26–222
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 169.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.5Season APEX451.1

14.4Auto17.9

11.3Teleop97.4

55.6Endgame117.6

89Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	15
teleop	40	5
endgame	95	22
foul	0	0
total	92	42

Result

Final score

92 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 91.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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