Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.68 – 128.67

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 123.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.7 ±9.8

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 25.09Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 9.31Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 38.28Rank 24Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 504.8 ±9.8

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 26.03Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 100.11Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 2.53Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3357, 4327, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.7 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3357, 4327, 226

Auto

16.4 18%

Teleop

-0.6 0%

Endgame

76.3 83%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 67%

Blue · 4926, 201, 9210

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.7 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4926, 201, 9210

Auto

4.9 3%

Teleop

72.3 45%

Endgame

83.9 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 67%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.44 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score72.7pts

Blue projected score128.7pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 67%, blue 66%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56
Score range: 44–158
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 162.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.7Season APEX504.8

16.4Auto4.9

-0.6Teleop72.3

76.3Endgame83.9

84Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	78
teleop	26	199
endgame	94	132
foul	0	0
total	90	359

Result

Final score

90 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 123.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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