Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.74 – 115.37

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.3 ±10.5

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 70.95Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 17.57Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 62.22Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 524.8 ±9.8

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 26.59Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 42.49Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 46.29Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2834, 1596, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.7 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2834, 1596, 51

Auto

17.4 11%

Teleop

80.9 51%

Endgame

60.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 69%

Blue · 8424, 3175, 2611

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.4 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8424, 3175, 2611

Auto

7.0 6%

Teleop

53.9 44%

Endgame

61.2 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 69%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score150.7pts

Blue projected score115.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 69%, blue 62%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.4
Score range: 86–180
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 163.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.3Season APEX524.8

17.4Auto7

80.9Teleop53.9

60.5Endgame61.2

91Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	2
teleop	124	68
endgame	97	20
foul	0	15
total	200	105

Result

Final score

200 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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