Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

122.66 – 165.86

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 113.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.8 ±11.1

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 53.68Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 62.37Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 6.61Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.9 ±9.8

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX -14.03Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 126.27Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 53.62Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6120, 3655, 4327

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.7 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6120, 3655, 4327

Auto

3.9 3%

Teleop

40.7 27%

Endgame

108.5 71%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 63%

Blue · 4422, 7197, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.9 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4422, 7197, 33

Auto

15.0 7%

Teleop

98.8 46%

Endgame

100.7 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 63%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.47 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score122.7pts

Blue projected score165.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 63%, blue 72%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.2
Score range: 94–195
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 159.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.8Season APEX520.9

3.9Auto15

40.7Teleop98.8

108.5Endgame100.7

73Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	41
teleop	40	212
endgame	78	150
foul	0	0
total	83	353

Result

Final score

83 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 113.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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