Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.95 – 196.61

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 85.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 497.6 ±9.8

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 67.71Rank 14Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 42.49Rank 16Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 46.75Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 686.4 ±9.3

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 56.21Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 12.2Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 128.2Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1189, 247, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

157 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1189, 247, 4926

Auto

39.5 21%

Teleop

44.6 23%

Endgame

107.4 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 71%

Blue · 1506, 5577, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.6 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1506, 5577, 201

Auto

7.7 3%

Teleop

103.1 42%

Endgame

132.4 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 71%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.7 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score157pts

Blue projected score196.6pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 71%, blue 66%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.7
Score range: 127–227
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 164.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

497.6Season APEX686.4

39.5Auto7.7

44.6Teleop103.1

107.4Endgame132.4

64Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	0
teleop	55	73
endgame	71	79
foul	0	0
total	80	102

Result

Final score

80 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 85.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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