Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.97 – 63.21

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 146.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.3 ±9.8

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX -0.24Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX -1.75Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 22.96Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 596.5 ±9.3

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 14.14Rank 16Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 39.38Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 9.69Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1506, 4926, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

21 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1506, 4926, 2834

Auto

-1.1 0%

Teleop

6.6 20%

Endgame

27.4 83%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 61%

Blue · 247, 3175, 3656

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.2 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 247, 3175, 3656

Auto

-4.0 0%

Teleop

42.8 57%

Endgame

36.8 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 61%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.52 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score21pts

Blue projected score63.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 61%, blue 70%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.2
Score range: -8–92
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 161.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.3Season APEX596.5

-1.1Auto-4

6.6Teleop42.8

27.4Endgame36.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	6
teleop	126	63
endgame	119	94
foul	5	30
total	234	143

Result

Final score

234 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 146.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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