Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.91 – 207.07

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 347

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.6 ±9.8

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 107.41Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 1.54Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 18.96Rank 24Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 775.5 ±9.3

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 134.62Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 39.51Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 32.94Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10349, 4422, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.9 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10349, 4422, 226

Auto

11.3 7%

Teleop

59.8 36%

Endgame

94.9 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 73%

Blue · 5460, 51, 2611

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.1 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5460, 51, 2611

Auto

61.5 26%

Teleop

89.2 38%

Endgame

86.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 73%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.52 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score127.9pts

Blue projected score207.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 73%, blue 61%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.2
Score range: 99–236
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 159.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.6Season APEX775.5

11.3Auto61.5

59.8Teleop89.2

94.9Endgame86.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	69
teleop	43	206
endgame	87	117
foul	15	5
total	102	347

Result

Final score

102 – 347

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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