Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.31 – 264.66

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 51.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535.3 ±9.8

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 98.04Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 35.49Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 53.78Rank 14Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379 ±11.7

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 137.17Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 72.92Rank 26Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6078RoboRams

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 54.57Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7197, 9210, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.3 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7197, 9210, 1189

Auto

21.4 10%

Teleop

101.0 45%

Endgame

99.7 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 69%

Blue · 201, 6548, 6078

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.7 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 201, 6548, 6078

Auto

47.1 15%

Teleop

131.7 42%

Endgame

136.9 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 69%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score187.3pts

Blue projected score264.7pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 69%, blue 78%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.4
Score range: 159–293
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 155.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535.3Season APEX379

21.4Auto47.1

101Teleop131.7

99.7Endgame136.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	13
teleop	95	86
endgame	119	130
foul	5	5
total	210	184

Result

Final score

210 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 51.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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