Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.08 – 148.91

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 61.5 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 582.5 ±9.3

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 69.41Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 35.3Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 13.37Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.1 ±11

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 69.41Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 38.09Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 41.41Rank 16Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9255, 3175, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.1 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9255, 3175, 1506

Auto

12.6 11%

Teleop

57.7 50%

Endgame

46.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 61%

Blue · 3655, 5577, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.9 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3655, 5577, 247

Auto

23.8 15%

Teleop

77.1 48%

Endgame

58.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 61%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.62 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score118.1pts

Blue projected score148.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 61%, blue 79%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.8
Score range: 88–179
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 164.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

582.5Season APEX354.1

12.6Auto23.8

57.7Teleop77.1

46.2Endgame58.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	0
teleop	20	31
endgame	75	82
foul	30	0
total	81	63

Result

Final score

81 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 61.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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