Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

303.85 – 134.62

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.6 ±8.7

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 51.6Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 89.13Rank 14Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 163.12Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 535.6 ±9.8

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 16.07Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 53.09Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 65.46Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1076, 1189, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.9 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1076, 1189, 201

Auto

53.7 16%

Teleop

146.6 43%

Endgame

139.4 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 72%

Blue · 3175, 2834, 9210

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.6 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3175, 2834, 9210

Auto

11.4 7%

Teleop

63.0 41%

Endgame

79.8 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 72%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.77 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score303.9pts

Blue projected score134.6pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 72%, blue 64%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.2
Score range: 98–341
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 458 vs event baseline 206.1.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.6Season APEX535.6

53.7Auto11.4

146.6Teleop63

139.4Endgame79.8

69Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	9
teleop	161	80
endgame	164	29
foul	0	0
total	340	118

Result

Final score

340 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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