FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

273.53 – 133.11

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 621.3 ±9.3

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 139.7Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 21.73Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 112.1Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.1 ±12.1

2405Techno Trojans

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 35.27Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6877Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 34.9Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2771Code Red Robotics the Stray Dogs

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 62.94Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6090, 11503, 2075

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6090, 11503, 2075

Auto

69.2 26%

Teleop

145.1 54%

Endgame

55.7 21%

Strengths

· 6090 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2405, 6877, 2771

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2405, 6877, 2771

Auto

21.7 17%

Teleop

77.2 59%

Endgame

31.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score273.5pts

Blue projected score133.1pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 140.4
Score range: 109–298
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 131.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

621.3Season APEX281.1

69.2Auto21.7

145.1Teleop77.2

55.7Endgame31.4

26Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	28
teleop	141	74
endgame	44	41
foul	0	5
total	254	148

Result

Final score

254 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts

Match videos

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