FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.03 – 70.13

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.9 ±11.7

10654Tiger Bytes

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 39.71Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX -6.22Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 53.54Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.4 ±12.8

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 25.14Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6428STEMINEERS

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 44.39Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11522Union HS

Season APEX 79.9Event APEX 0.6Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10654, 7810, 2075

/ 100 compat

Projected

87 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10654, 7810, 2075

Auto

20.1 23%

Teleop

35.5 41%

Endgame

31.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 85, 6428, 11522

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 85, 6428, 11522

Auto

16.7 23%

Teleop

35.5 50%

Endgame

19.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87pts

Blue projected score70.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.9
Score range: 52–105
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 102.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.9Season APEX252.4

20.1Auto16.7

35.5Teleop35.5

31.4Endgame19.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	15
teleop	75	11
endgame	16	23
foul	0	0
total	124	49

Result

Final score

124 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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