FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.46 – 59.33

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.3 ±10.5

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 60.32Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 36Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 45.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.5 ±13.3

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 52Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7248Tactical Hams

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 9.46Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6094Manic Mechanics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -2.13Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8612, 11503, 9541

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8612, 11503, 9541

Auto

36.2 26%

Teleop

68.4 48%

Endgame

36.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9106, 7248, 6094

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9106, 7248, 6094

Auto

6.3 11%

Teleop

32.0 55%

Endgame

20.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.5pts

Blue projected score59.3pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.1
Score range: 39–161
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 103 vs event baseline 109.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.3Season APEX219.5

36.2Auto6.3

68.4Teleop32

36.9Endgame20.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	22
teleop	31	9
endgame	13	2
foul	0	5
total	65	38

Result

Final score

65 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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