FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82 – 136.15

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 43.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.2 ±12.8

11522Union HS

Season APEX 79.9Event APEX 1.63Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 59.74Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 20.63Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.8 ±12.4

6428STEMINEERS

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 12.62Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5470The Cowpunchers

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 18.4Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 105.13Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11522, 5505, 6005

/ 100 compat

Projected

82 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11522, 5505, 6005

Auto

13.4 17%

Teleop

39.3 49%

Endgame

27.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6428, 5470, 8612

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6428, 5470, 8612

Auto

30.0 23%

Teleop

77.4 58%

Endgame

25.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82pts

Blue projected score136.1pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.1
Score range: 59–159
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 130.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.2Season APEX337.8

13.4Auto30

39.3Teleop77.4

27.2Endgame25.2

58Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	47
teleop	34	71
endgame	32	54
foul	5	30
total	103	202

Result

Final score

103 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 43.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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