FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.8 – 253.66

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.2 ±12.7

9756Robo Panthers

Season APEX 99Event APEX 38.57Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6428STEMINEERS

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 16.18Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 46.05Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.7 ±10.5

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 112.1Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 57.4Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 84.16Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9756, 6428, 9106

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9756, 6428, 9106

Auto

15.0 15%

Teleop

47.2 48%

Endgame

36.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2075, 4004, 4956

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2075, 4004, 4956

Auto

39.1 16%

Teleop

149.2 60%

Endgame

62.4 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.8pts

Blue projected score253.7pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -152.9
Score range: 78–277
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 128.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.2Season APEX434.7

15Auto39.1

47.2Teleop149.2

36.6Endgame62.4

2Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	47
teleop	23	161
endgame	13	59
foul	20	0
total	74	267

Result

Final score

74 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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