FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.21 – 200.52

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 44.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.7 ±9.9

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 70.29Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 83.43Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6079JET SET

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 2.49Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.1 ±11.2

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 56.5Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 128.62Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5470The Cowpunchers

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 15.4Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7160, 4967, 6079

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7160, 4967, 6079

Auto

34.2 22%

Teleop

87.0 55%

Endgame

36.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5505, 6090, 5470

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5505, 6090, 5470

Auto

60.4 31%

Teleop

88.9 45%

Endgame

48.3 24%

Strengths

· 6090 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.2pts

Blue projected score200.5pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.3
Score range: 133–224
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 128.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.7Season APEX480.1

34.2Auto60.4

87Teleop88.9

36Endgame48.3

33Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	72
teleop	62	135
endgame	36	34
foul	0	10
total	117	251

Result

Final score

117 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 44.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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