FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.98 – 117.31

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420 ±10.5

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 43.01Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 62.89Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 93.08Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.9 ±12.2

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 65.13Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 35.73Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9754Vestabots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 16.45Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9106, 85, 3572

/ 100 compat

Projected

199 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9106, 85, 3572

Auto

39.0 20%

Teleop

103.2 53%

Endgame

53.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7054, 9541, 9754

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7054, 9541, 9754

Auto

20.6 17%

Teleop

72.2 60%

Endgame

26.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score199pts

Blue projected score117.3pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.7
Score range: 94–222
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 128.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420Season APEX250.9

39Auto20.6

103.2Teleop72.2

53.5Endgame26.8

16Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	28
teleop	152	65
endgame	48	49
foul	5	0
total	248	142

Result

Final score

248 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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